What climate conditions can the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) expect in the coming decades? What are the extremes of droughts and floods that we may experience? How might climate change affect El Niño intensity and frequency and the droughts associated with strong El Niño periods in Panamá? According to reports from NASA and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Earth’s 2016 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern recordkeeping began in 1880”, with 16 of the 17 warmest years recorded since 2001. A warmer atmosphere contributes to more evaporation and convective storms, to deeper and more prolonged droughts and, when associated to increased ocean surface temperature, it can also generate higher intensity tropical storms such as those witnessed during the remarkable 2017 Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season.
We live in an age of increasing uncertainty with respect to air temperature and precipitation distribution and accumulation. Past norms for seasonality and annual variability of these fundamental climate variables have become unreliable. In a landmark 2008 paper in the journal Science, hydrologists declared that “stationarity is dead”. During much of the 20th century in most watersheds where a 30-year hydrologic record had been acquired, scientists were able to reasonably predict future key variables such as average and maximum precipitation amounts (both temporally and spatially), stream flow, flood peaks, etc. Climate and land use change have degraded the ability to make these predictions.
In this 21st century “non-stationary” world, managers of natural resources must be increasingly resilient in administering these assets. For water availability and quality, this means constantly searching for ways to be more efficient with our use. For land resources, it means minimizing human-caused disruption of natural systems, by planting and maintaining endemic tree species that are adapted to local natural disturbances such as storms, pests, and fire. It also requires collaborating with economists and social scientists to find ways that incentivize good stewardship by private and public land owners.
Good stewardship assures that the benefits we receive from natural systems, known as ecosystem services, continue to accrue into the future in spite of the vagaries of climate change. Watersheds provide numerous ecosystem services, such as good quality water, reduced peak river flow during storms, increased availability of groundwater and base flow in streams during seasonal dry periods and droughts, reduced soil erosion and landslide probability, enhanced resilience to wildfire, pathogens and invasive species, biodiversity, genetic resources and recreation.
The Republic of Panamá is highly dependent on abundant annual precipitation to manage the Canal, which currently uses more than 4 cubic kilometers of freshwater per year for lockages, hydroelectric power generation, and potable water supply. As climate change continues to intensify in the coming decades, it is incumbent on the ACP and the nation to optimize land and water management so that we can guarantee an economically and environmentally stable future.